An evening with Malcolm Gladwell

Spending an evening at Philharmonic Hall with Malcolm Gladwell was enough to mentally shove him - or rather Outliers - somewhere near the top of 'The Pile'.

Now, sensibly for most and disappointingly for me - he didn't talk about Outliers. As he explained in his dry yet polite American accent - the tour was to celebrate the publication of the book in paperback and therefore, most people there would already have ready it.

Okay, so you prove early on you're capable of sensible thinking.

Instead his talk focused on the concept of miscalibration - or rather, how over-confidence in your expertise or knowledge in a particular field can lead to you making errors in the very field at which you exert that expertise or knowledge.

Still with me? You make the mistake because you know too much about it.

Gladwell used lots of interesting examples - generals in the American Civil War who had superb intelligence on their opponents and therefore became too relaxed and made crucial tactical errors. Equally, the 'city boys' who thought they knew everything about generating the big bucks for their banks - so chilled out only for the banks to collapse around their ears!

It was a brilliant history/moral lesson and my attention never wandered. Indeed, my friend M - sitting elsewhere in the audience - told me the woman next to him punctuated every important point, life lesson and gentle warning with a delighted yelp of "Yes!".

Another said the woman next to her insisted on proudly answering every rhetorical question.

To get such a reaction from a mostly British audience, you must be doing something right.

Afterwards, my friend J told me Gladwell's writing style is very like his speeches - she said she imagines him dictating rather than scribbling - and that is the reason, for me, that Outliers achieves the lofty honour of making it onto 'The Pile'.

That's not to say I walked away amazed, having heard a whole concept.

As my wise friend E pointed out later, perhaps the message here was really "Pride comes before a fall". Like we haven't heard that one before. My father chided me for being a "Know-it-all" when I was eight. We all know "I've never been wrong before" and "We've got all bases covered" is no guarantee of a successful outcome.

But hey, a warning is no bad thing - these are lessons in life we can't learn (or preferably be reminded of) often enough and it's good to remember that not only are the 'experts' around us infallible - the comfort blanket of their expertise might even make them vulnerable.

Still, I disagree with anyone who gained the impression that the inevitable downfall of the miscalibrated expert was a bad thing - for the expert.

While it's obviously a bad thing for those affected by their expertise and the position of power that normally goes with it (the nations protected by the experienced generals; the populations with homes and jobs in the hands of the 'it-won't-happen-to-us' financial smart-alecs)

Miscalibration is no enemy for the expert.

They might learn their lesson and go onto greater things (cue the crestfallen American Civil War general - we all know it's not the battles you win, but the wars and he ended up on the right side. The other miscalibrated general did not - but there can only be one winner right?)

Equally, they might use their grandiose and overblown confidence in their own knowledge to attract the investment of others - and walk away without injury when it all goes wrong.

Or... they might live off their burgeoning banks for years and retire early with a nice juicy pension (and pay off) when it all comes crashing around their ears.

So yes, society does celebrate the over-confident and place too much trust in knowledge and experience and yes, we're wrong to do so.

But until that changes I'm afraid I'm all for miscalibration - so long as I have the expertise to jump ship at the crucial moment ... which, of course, I do. I'm an expert.